02/01/2019: Today's Updates... 6.15pm...
Day 19 Of The 2018/19 Chatel Ski Season:
Colder weather today has allowed snowmaking to continue in some areas through the day and this looks like being widespread tonight. This could mean that pistes such as the run down to the village from Super Chatel have a chance of re-opening, if enough snow can be made.
Piste conditions have been harder today, with no mild sunshine for any softening, however, the snow making should improve things a little bit, especially on the early morning groomed pistes. Snow flurries have been few and far between today.
The models are becoming interesting and for the first time in what seems like an eternity, tomorrow morning's runs are keenly anticipated as there appears to be an increasing possibility of something interesting arriving next week - nothing spectacular by the looks of it, just the possibility of cold temperatures and some useful snowfall - which in the context of the current situation, would be just a bit more than welcome...
One of our WhatsApp group members (Andrew C), has posted this spectacular photo from the Mossettes of a sun dog effect, caused by the sun and ice crystals in the cloud. Thanks Andrew!
On a separate note, the GFS FV3 parallel model has churned out its 2nd successive really cold run of the day, in total contrast to the bore-fest of the GFS operational model run - so there is a continuation of the possible hints of optimism shown by thIs morning’s ECMWF model and the earlier GFS Parallel run.
Could this be the day that the models have latched onto a more positive outlook? It’s too soon to know - but it is a possibility!
This morning's forecast page mentioned that the outlook remains a very uncertain one and that there are unfavourable scenarios still possible. This morning's GFS operational run was certainly one of the unfavourable ones with no useful snowfall showing for nearly 2 weeks!!!
Other charts do hold more promise this morning. Below is a selection from the Meteociel.fr website. The 3 left hand frames show the dry GFS model run with high pressure behaving unfavourably for us. Of more interest, are the 144hr frames from the ECMWF and UK Met Office, followed by the 192hr frames from the new GFS FV3 model and ECMWF. The GFS FV3 is set to replace the current GFS model in a few weeks time.
These charts suggest that we may see an incursion of low pressure and cold air coming in from the northwest or north from about the middle of next week.
Below is the ECMWF 168hr chart from Meteociel.fr , which shows this scenario and is perhaps our best route to some useful snowfall. Note that adjustments east or west would have implications for us on the ground in terms of the amount of snow and the depth of cold, and if things get shunted east, then we would be looking at the much drier and less cold scenario thrown up (literally) by the GFS. The GFS operational run effectively writes off snowfall for the first half of January, so that would indeed by vomit inducing for powder hounds...
So, all eyes are on about the 9th January, however, this is far from a done deal...
Colder weather has arrived for the whole ski area, rather than the recent temperature inversion type conditions, so this has allowed snowmaking to re-commence this morning. This is great news.
Photo below from a few minutes ago, shows the dusting from the tiny flakes earlier this morning.
Some charts from this morning's model runs will be posted in about 30 minutes time... will they show any snow???
Bonjour. Very light snow is falling here in the village, but it is very, very light with only a dusting on the ground... forecast page is expected to be updated at 7.30am...
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