03/12/2018... Today's Updates... 8.10pm
Gales and rain have been battering the village this evening, as a squall line crosses the area - so it has not been particularly pleasant outside. Not really a big fan of big winds after many years of being battered on the coasts and seas of North Wales, but fortunately, they are relatively uncommon here in the valley.
The charts this evening continue the general theme for next weekend, with again some variations, but we are still very much in the game regarding the potential for significant snowfall. The GFS model looks as though it is trying to be the party pooper, but overall, we are potentially another step closer to some proper snowfall.
Next update - approx 7.45am on the forecast page.
It was a bit dreary up at Col du Saix late this afternoon... brief update from the world of weather models once the ECMWF has come out.
The weather remains mild, cloudy and showery here in Chatel and the wind has been picking up recently too. Further rain, again potentially heavy, is expected this evening along with some stronger winds.
Looking at the charts for the end of the week and there is a continuation of the very promising scenario that has been discussed on these pages for several days now.
We are still looking like seeing a rain to snow event arrive next Friday night with the chance of significant snowfall for the Chatel and PDS areas between Saturday and Monday. The variations between the models continue, so don't get too obsessed with potential snow amounts shown by the automated sites, as it is still too far out for any realistic predictions of accumulations. The good news is that at the moment, the message from all the models is a similar one, in terms of the general pattern, which looks a potentially significantly snow one - so unless there is a very unpleasant downgrade from the models over the next couple of days, we are pretty much at the point whereby we can say it it is going to snow.
On a note of caution, one of the variations from some of models early today was for a hint of milder air returning into the mix on Sunday, which would potentially raise snow/rain limits for a time, so although this trend may disappear on tonight or tomorrow's model runs, it does show that small variations in the pattern can have significant impacts on the ground in terms of snowfall.
It should also be noted that this set up could hit our "sweet spot" in terms of delivering a notable snow event.
Today is Monday, so this potential event is now just over 4 days away.
The next hurdle is the evening models runs and so this page will be updated once most of the charts from the 12Z runs have been viewed.
A bit of a damp scene this morning as the rain continues to fall, with a noticeable reduction in snow cover since this time yesterday.
7.50am: Bonjour from a very wet Chatel. The latest forecast has gone online over on this page and we'll be looking at next weekend again during today on this page, with that chance of a significant snowfall still showing in some charts this morning.
How you can help this season... you will notice on some pages that there is a PayPal tip/donation box, eg on the "About Us" page, where you can send us a tip, if you like what we are doing. There is no obligation to do so, but any donations will help the running costs of this site during the winter season. The more people who help, the better we can make this site.