04/12/2020: Today's Updates...
Snow has been falling all afternoon in Chatel - mostly light and with temperatures of 1c - there's only an additional dusting to some surfaces at 1150m. We should see some accumulations this evening and tonight.
Snow has now started falling at all elevations of the Chatel ski area...
6z Arome is showing more snow than on its earlier run, which was posted at the bottom of the page - so there is some cause to be more optimistic about this snowfall. However, there are mixed messages regarding the potential for snow on Saturday night / Sunday, which is now showing on the GFs model. At the moment this additional snow event appears to be a less likely scenario, but we'll take another looks when the 12z model runs are available later this afternoon and there will also be an update before then, if we see some snowfall here in the village.
GFS 6z appears to have upgraded the potential snowfall AND brings another tomorrow night / Sunday. This renews the interest in this snow event... an update will be posted early this afternoon once the latest Arome model is available...
As mentioned on the earlier post, the news this morning is that there has been a general downgrade in the forecast snowfall amounts for the next 24 hours. Although there is always uncertainty regarding any snowfall, it's often not good news when the highest resolution model shows lower amounts at a relatively short timeframe.
The models have also all pushed back the arrival of the accumulating snowfall to this afternoon. Also, note that whereas the GFS model suggests the 0c isothem should be at village elevation this morning, the reality is that, apart from local inversion effects, it is currently well above the village with a current temperature at 1150m of 2c.
The latest Arome model run has the 0c isotherm at the following forecast elevations.
According to Arome accumulating precipitation is suggested mostly between 2pm and 2am.
We'll be keeping a close eye on any signs of any changes to the scenario pained above and will post any updates. There is always the chance of a surprise when it comes to snowfall and it is noted that both GFS and Arpege models do suggest higher accumulations.
In terms of the outlook, at the moment, there remains a chance of a snowfall springing up at short notice, however, it looks as though the southern Alps will see the very unsettled and snowy weather over the next week, whereas there may only be bits and pieces of snow and mostly dry weather up here in the NW French Alps.
Updates to follow during the day as we may see some flakes this morning before the main area of precipitation arrives later.
Bonjour from Chatel - where it is cloudy in the village with an air temperature of 2c. The overnight hi-res model Arome has downgraded forecast amounts for today and tonight's snowfall, which will be discussed in more detail at approx 10am...
Below is the Arome hi-res accumulation forecast for the period up to midday tomorrow from www.meteociel.fr ... which shows quite a downgrade...
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