• The Chatel Snow Report

05/01/2019: Today's Updates... 6.00pm...

Day 22 Of The 2018/19 Chatel Ski Season:


6.00pm:

The weather has been dry since the last post.


This post is a bit of keeping feet firmly planted on the ground kind of post, regarding the potential snowfall of Tuesday / Wednesday.


The automated forecasts have been churning out various predictions for how many cm's of snow we will receive, however, the resolution of these models is relatively poor at this range. An example is shown below which is the Arpege model's view on amounts (from Meteociel.fr). At first glance its a cause for celebration with the best part of 50cm being shown in the area - but a closer look shows this model's obvious resolution flaws... more than double the amount of snow in Abondance than Chatel and Avoriaz... unlikely!


So, at this range out, the models are guessing and often very misleading, hence the regular disappointments.


As it stands so far this evening, we are happy with the kind of scenario that was posted at this time yesterday in terms of mid-station amounts and the models so far today have not appeared to have upgraded precipitation amounts, or shown a more beneficial scenario - so the snowfall of this week remains promising, but is also vulnerable to a potential shift in the pattern eastwards which could mean less precipitation, or it could see a beneficial shift in the pattern... both are still very possible... which all adds to the excitement, tension, trepidation etc etc etc...


This evening's Arpege run from Meteociel.fr


3.45pm:

The snow shower petered out and has left about 0.5cm of snow at the bottom of Linga - nice to see a little bit of fresh snow!



2.50pm:

Snowing properly at Linga now...



2.20pm:

Much quieter today and a visit to Linga found conditions underfoot to be slightly improved, with more loose snow and less of the sheet ice areas - all down to the snowmaking and lowering of traffic. It is still cloudy and there continue to be further snow flurries - but as expected, these are not amounting to much at all and visibility is mostly ok. But, it is nice to see some snowflakes...



10.30am:

There are still a few flakes of snow in the area, with cloudy skies overhead and temperatures remain very cold.


With all eyes on next Tuesday and Wednesday, which we'll take another look at later today, below are some charts for the period from next Thursday to Sunday, from the excellent Meteociel.fr website.


High pressure can be seen to the west / southwest of the British Isles next Thursday, with lower pressure affecting the Alps, with still a chance of snow showers for this area, though the bulk of the precipitation should have passed through before then. Thereafter, the models are suggesting that the high pressure mentioned above, will sink southwestwards and become an extension of the Azores high, with low pressure riding over the top and perhaps bringing a re-run of Tuesday/Wednesday's potential event during the following weekend - though by this stage, slightly milder options are also on the table.

Thereafter, although there may or may not be some snowfall during next weekend, the period towards mid-month is still showing some signs of something far more significant arriving. The ECMWF chart below is posted for a bit of fun really, as it is for a period 10 days away, however, it does illustrate the possible scenarios that we are seeing cropping up on the charts. If we get something like what is being shown on this charts, then the westerly flow, perhaps becoming west-northwesterly, firing into our area, with a long fetch out into the north Atlantic, would potentially, eventually deliver something much more spectacular.


That is all a very long way off - but will be something that will be kept a close eye on.


It should be noted that the return of the Atlantic weather, as depicted in this example below, could be delayed if the models are again underestimating the influence of higher pressure, but with some luck, this pattern change could deliver for us.




9.45am:

The skies have clouded over this morning and we have some very light snow falling!


7.45am:

The snow forecast was updated at 7.35am - note that it displayed the wrong date for about 5 minutes before being corrected.


6.40am:

Bonjour... It is another cold and clear start to the day here in Chatel, with temperatures not far from -8C.

Forecast page update is expected at 7.30am...



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