05/12/2019: Today's Updates...
The model runs this evening have a better look about them for Monday's snow event and this is the sort of trend we would like to see at this stage, as we get closer to this potential snowfall. Pick of the bunch is the often over-optimistic Arpege model, which is posted below and shows snowfall up to 7am Tuesday. Do not take it too seriously, however, the interesting thing about it is that it is picking up a signal for the potential for a rather large amount of precipitation to fall in a relatively short period of time. One of the things we have observed about this model over the years, is that it often gets snow accumulation wrong at a particular elevation, especially at lower elevations, but is better at giving a general impression of total rain equivalent precipitation, so, tonight's update has raised some interest here at snow report HQ. Is it onto something? We'll know a bit more on tomorrow morning's update...
Chart from www.meteociel.fr
It has been another lovely day here in Chatel, a bit hazier than yesterday, but a really pleasant day to be out in the sunshine. The valley areas have stayed colder today as expected and one of the only snow cannon to be working in the area was the one at the bottom of Cret Beni, where the temperature inversion conditions work in its favour.
Tomorrow is the last day before we see the first day of uplift operations and snow sports here in Chatel!
Photo from Barbossine at approx 1450m this afternoon.
It is bright, rather than crystal clear here at the moment in Chatel with the sunshine a little hazier than was the case yesterday.
Looking at the various models for potential snowfall next Monday, initial estimates put it in the 10cm to 30cm range at mid-station elevations. There are enough differences between the charts this morning to bring the feeling that a really useful fall of snow is not yet quite a done deal. The euro charts, ie from the UK Met Office and ECMWF remain promising, perhaps bring quantities in the upper part of the range mentioned above, however, the GFS model 00z run this morning did not look quite as good. As this is still 4 days away, subtle changes in the pattern will have noticeable differences on the ground. We'll obviously be keeping a very close eye on this, on the forecast page and on here... but it won't be until the weekend, when this snow event comes into the range of the hi-res models, that we'll have a better idea.
The direct link to this morning's forecast page is as follows...
Just to add to the earlier post - it is less cold on the slopes of the village this morning - closer to 0c / -1c, in contrast to the valley bottom, a short distance away, , showing the noticeable temperature inversion.
Bonjour from Chatel - it’s a cold start at about -3c, however it is temperature inversion type cold, so there does not appear to be any snow cannon operating outside of the cold valley spots.
Today's forecast link will be posted at about 8am at... http://www.chatelweb.com/chatel_snow_forecast.php
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