06/01/2019: Today's Updates... 6.00pm...
Day 23 Of The 2018/19 Chatel Ski Season:
The news from the models 12z runs (so far) appears to be positive, with similar amounts of precipitation being shown to this morning... but are they to be believed?
The chances of a weekend snowfall also appear to have risen, which could be a bonus.
We await the verdict of the higher res models tomorrow morning... so fingers crossed for us, and also for the smaller resorts in the area which are currently not as fortunate with their current snow cover. As Sir Alex Ferguson once said, "It's squeaky bum time."
Lots to looks at on tomorrow's forecast, which should be online at approx. 7.30am...
The clouds have been coming and going on the peaks this morning with sunny intervals coming and going too - all mostly very pleasant.
One point of interest from the models this morning is that there has been a noticeable backing away from some of the potentially very snowy charts towards mid-month - however, we expect the charts to chop and change at these sorts of ranges, so it is a bit too soon to get too concerned, however, the ECMWF had a wetter look about it than was the case on previous runs...
Update expected this evening with the latest on the Tues/Wed saga...
This morning's snow forecast update mentioned that we'd take a look at snowfall amounts for Tuesday and Wednesday, so following on from yesterday evening's post, here is the latest Arpege accumulation forecast chart from www.meteociel.fr ...
This chart is probably the reason why the Meteo France automated output is suggesting 40cm+ for Chatel for the snowfall - but again note the resolution issues that this model appears to have in this area, with that apparent bias towards the west-northwest of here and its resolution doesn't appear to handle the local topography very well. Yes, there are local differences in accumulation amounts from any snowfall, but generally not to the extent that is being shown here.
Looking at the chart, it is easy to see why the Meteo France automated output suggests alot less snowfall for Avoriaz (more than 40% less) than for Chatel or Abondance - which appears an unlikely scenario, especially when altitude is taken into consideration (normally greater altitude = greater snowfall).
So, when you see such glaring potential irregularities on the local scale, it does throw considerable doubt on this model's output.
Bearing all this in mind, the scenario shown in the chart is in our "possible" scenario filing cabinet, rather than the "likely" one - but if that scenario was offered as an eventual outcome - we'd take it straight away as 40cm would be very, very welcome!
Other models provide differing scenarios to the Arpege, with GFS in the 20cm to 30cm category by the looks of it and the ECMWF precipitation forecast is for between 30cm and 35cm. The ZAMG, a close relation to the ECMWF, suggests 35cm for the village and 61cm for the highest parts of the area.
So, some promising totals being suggested this morning, however, we should get a much better idea of where this is heading when the first part of these potential snowfalls comes into range of the much better performing Arome model tomorrow morning, which may tone down some of these numbers, if past experience is anything to go by.
We'll post further info later after subsequent model runs.
Bonjour from Chatel - temperatures are currently between -2c and -3c in the village and valley near our location. The forecast page is expected to be updated at 7.45am...
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