• The Chatel Snow Report

07/01/2019: Today's Updates... 6.25pm...


Day 24 Of The 2018/19 Chatel Ski Season:


6.25pm:

It is the eve of the first potentially useful snowfall of 2019 and the latest runs from the various models are currently coming out. The first thing to note is that we are not expecting very much snowfall during tomorrow daytime, with perhaps a covering in the village and a few cm's higher up by this time tomorrow, but at this stage it looks as though the "main event" will during the period from tomorrow night through to Wednesday night.


The hi-res Arome model now covers the period to 7am on Wednesday and by then it is suggesting totals of 10cm to 15cm for the higher parts of the area and maybe 5cm to 10cm in the village area, with less in the valley. So, this model is suggesting modest, but useful totals by Wednesday morning, with further snowfall to follow during Wednesday. Another thing to note during tomorrow is that the 0c isotherm isn't expected to plummet until tomorrow night, so the snow may be a bit wet at times at the village elevation until later. Whether this model has got this one right remains to be seen, but we will soon know the answer.


Other models and forecasting tools continue to suggest differing scenarios with Arpege and ZAMG suggesting the highest totals in the local area, with GFS perhaps seeing something along the lines of the Arome model (for a change!).


This snowfall comes with quite a high level of uncertainty due to the potential synoptic set up, so the results of this one could still go either way, with the possibility of both really pleasant or not so pleasant surprises, or some sort of middle ground scenario, which we suspect the Arome and GFS models are suggesting.


We should have more info from the hi-res models early tomorrow morning, which will then be in range for all of Wednesday daytime and hopefully, by tomorrow morning, we may see the first snowflakes falling.


Next update will be early tomorrow on the snow report section, with the forecast to follow at approx. 7.30am...



1.10pm:

The fog has continued to move about the valley area this morning, easing up and down, but above it, the weather has been glorious and we found sparkling sunshine a short distance above the fog. A quick blast around the Linga and PLJ areas found the PLJ side to be busier than expected, with pistes still generally rock hard, but there are some pleasanter areas to be found with softer, looser snow, along with the icier stretches. The icier stretched are generally on the steeper sections. On the Linga side there is a particularly treacherous section, just below the telecabine, which has warning banners around it - however - some of the Linga area seemed improved today and the cannon were still pumping out snow, with temperatures remaining cold.


Regarding the all important snowfall of Tuesday / Wednesday, we won't know too much more until the 12z runs have come out, however it looks as though GFS has toned down its forecast amounts, whereas other models and forecasting tools such as Arpege and ZAMG are still going for a significant, game changing snowfall. More on this later (probably early evening).


As for the further outlook, there is the chance of further snowfall from the weekend onwards. The GFS models suggest there could be snow at some stage of every 24 hour period from Saturday to the following Thursday and the ECMWF charts also provide snowfall opportunities, so at the moment, a return of the dry, anticyclonic dominated weather appears to be off the agenda, which will be something of a refreshing change. Hopefully one or two of these potential snowfalls can deliver.


Combes this morning in the sunshine.

9.25am:

Fog coming and going in the immediate Chatel area... time for a visit to the ski area...


7.55am:

The skies have cleared since the early fog and it is looking like being a lovely day. The snow cannon continue to produce snow, for what is expected to be a relatively quiet ski area today. Updates are planned for this afternoon and early evening, with a visit to the ski area and also a look at the latest info on the potential snowfalls of the next couple of days, as well as the outlook from this weekend...



6.40am:

Bonjour. Temperatures are between -4c and -5c near our location this morning and there is some valley fog at the moment too.


The forecast page is expected to be updated between 7.30am and 7.45am...





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