10/11/2018: Any Sign Of Winter???
On our previous post this afternoon, it was stated that the outlook from the models is a little uninspiring in terms of an early start to the snow season. The reason for this is the likelihood that high pressure is going to continue to dominate the weather in the Chatel area, feeding in relatively mild air from the south at times.
The current situation shows low pressure is sitting to the northwest of Britain today, but any meaningful, eastwards progression of fronts towards our area is being blocked by high pressure. So, at the moment, we have a cloudy, lightly unsettled, southwesterly airstream affecting the area, bringing very little in the way of precipitation during today and tonight.
A glance at some charts from the excellent Meteociel.fr website shows the possible (and probable) evolution over the coming days. High pressure is expected to extend its influence westwards towards the UK during the second half of next week, with the Atlantic weather systems continuing to be effectively blocked off from entering France. As much of our snow is the result of Atlantic low pressure systems and their associated fronts, this is obviously an issue for the potential for snow here in Chatel.
Below is the GFS model's snapshot for the potential situation next Friday. Note that these charts do need to be treated with caution at such ranges, however, when the consensus from the models (and their ensembles), is for a similar evolution, then they can be used to demonstrate the general trend. Unfortunately that trend at the moment is for mild and dry weather...
By the following Sunday, there is little change in terms of the Chatel weather, though note the high may be situated more towards Scandinavia by this time, which could allow some rather more seasonal air to filter into central Europe around its southern flank. Also, with anticyclonic conditions in place, we may see local temperature inversions with mild weather on the sunny slopes by day and a touch of frost in the valleys at night, but these charts bring little cheer for any potential snow falling or for any man made snow making.
Below is this morning's ECMWF operational chart for a similar time frame, showing a similar situation to the GFS chart above, in terms of what we may experience on the ground here in Chatel... ie - anticyclonic, mild-ish by day with chilly nights.
The big question will be what will that high pressure do in the period after these charts and that is something we will be keeping a very close eye on over the coming days. Will it get shunted out of the way to let the Atlantic back in, or will it be positioned to let cold and dry air move in from the east, or will it stay sat close enough to continue the rather mild conditions or will we see low pressure in the Med - there are several scenarios, but it is not yet clear where things are heading for the last third of this month.
Finally, here is a chart showing the potential lack of precipitation in the area for the next 10 days with this model suggesting less than 1mm of rainfall in total!
In summary, no snow is expected in the next 7 days and this could easily extend out to 10 days. The situation can change very quickly on these extended outlook charts, but until there are signs of that actually happening, snow is currently off the menu.
Bye for now... next update expected to be during tomorrow...
All charts above copyright Meteociel.fr
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