12/01/2019: Today's Updates... 7.15pm...
The late afternoon and early evening model updates are mostly very good with every chance that this snowfall will deliver large quantities of snowfall.
There remains a period of uncertainty during tomorrow afternoon and early evening regarding the snow/rain limits, as the Arome model is suggesting the 0c isotherm will be sat at about 1650m at 19.00hrs tomorrow - which would potentially result in a wetter period for the village, however, there are other factors involved with snow/rain limits apart from just where the freezing level is situated, so we shall just have to see. Other models keep the 0c isotherm slightly lower, which would help enormously.
Arome has 80mm to 100mm of rain equivalent precipitation showing on its latest update, for the highest parts of the Portes du Soleil ski area for the period up to 7am Monday, which would indicate a heck of alot of snowfall. Using a rough conversion of rain equivalent precipitation to snowfall of 10mm = 10cm snow, you can see why there is the potential for a substantial snowfall.
GFS appears to suggest 70cm+ plus of snowfall for mid-station elevations and above, whereas ZAMG remains a bit of a party pooper with "only" up to 40cm of snowfall.
Lower down in the village, the situation is far more uncertain, due to those snow/rain limit issues, however, there is still a reasonable chance that we might see snow throughout the day and evening at 1200m, in which case a significant snowfall is possible too.
Tomorrow morning's accumulation forecasts on our forecast page will be very interesting, if the models continue to show these sorts of amounts.
Next update will be very early tomorrow on the latest snow report page, followed by the snow forecast at about 7.30am.
Currently, the temperature is around 0c with some tiny snowflakes falling.
As mentioned earlier, there is more cloud than expected today, with the cloud producing a few tiny flakes of snow. Conditions across the area are varied this afternoon. The snow cover on the open pistes is generally excellent, especially those with cannon cover which has resulted in a really substantial base for the season. However, the cannon do have the drawback of creating areas where the snow is harder - but without them, we would be really struggling. A glance at the Corbeau piste in Super Chatel shows the relatively thin cover of natural snow in some areas, so thank goodness for the huge investment in snowmaking over the years and the atmospheric conditions this year which has meant they have been able to operate.
Natural snow is on the way... and there will be a post on this during the evening, at around 7pm.
We found varied snow conditions on the pistes this afternoon, with the effects of the recent snowfall now less noticeable, so plenty of hard and icy areas returning, but overall its pretty good considering the amounts of natural snow. There were a few more people around this afternoon in comparison to the last few days and the Linga car park was full.
We await the snowfall... photos below from the Portes du Soleil chairlift...
There is much more cloud so far today than we were expecting this morning, but the snow is still expected to arrive during the evening, probably the latter part of the evening, though there may be some flakes before then.
A quick glance at the latest model runs and forecast tools shows some variance in predictions for this snowfall, with Arpege and Meteo France the most optimistic at the moment suggesting around 1m of snow right at the top and 45cm at the bottom, though note these totals have eased down a touch since earlier today. GFS isn't too far behind with 70cm at the top and about 40cm at the bottom. The party pooper at the moment is ZAMG, with 43cm at the top and a measly 25cm at the bottom.
We'll give our thoughts on the potential totals up to 7am Monday on an update later, as the period up until then will be in range of Arome, which means we can apply our snow forecasting method to the figures.
Current mood is optimistic on this one... heading to the ski area this afternoon, so report update around 7pm...
Bonjour - there has been a dusting of snow overnight in village with 0.5cm recorded at our location. Currently partly clear overhead. Temperatures a touch below -4c.
The forecast page is expected to be updated between 7.30am and 7.45am.
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