12/01/2020: Today's Updates... Day 32...
Weather conditions have been glorious for skiing and boarding again today, however, snow conditions were not quite as good as yesterday morning, with more scraped areas and looser snow to the edges of the pistes. There is still plenty of "decent" skiing to be found in the area and there are still suggestions of some snow arriving on Friday...
The model runs late this afternoon have reinforced the signal for snowfall on Friday night / Saturday, with the GFS model now suggesting significant snowfall and the UK Met Office model appears to be trending towards the GFS scenario. As mentioned below, unfortunately this is all still 5 days away, so we need to be seeing these charts midweek... but some promising signs so far today.
Today has continued the theme of stunning weather...
The models today have been edging towards a useful snowfall at the end of the week. The GFS model is again the keenest today (on both its runs so far), on bringing a very useful s.nowfall to all elevations on Friday night and Saturday, followed by some cold temperatures which would potentially allow snowmaking to take place, which would be useful, as thereafter, this model is then dry until the end of the month.
In comparison, although the ECMWF model is not suggesting as much snowfall as the GFS and is also suggesting a shorter period of precipitation, it does hint at something coming down from the north by Wednesday 22nd, which could be interesting.
So, although the major models have differences going forward, at the moment, both are offering something of a change to break us out of what is becoming an elongated dry spell, with perhaps some colder weather on the way too.
There's a possibility, or perhaps a probability, that the GFS is being over-optimistic regarding accumulations, so we'll be looking for some sort of half way house scenario, between the GFS and ECMWF. Also, as this potential precipitation event is still 5 days away, there is plenty of time for this to change, for the better... or for the worse.
View from this morning...
Following on from the forecast page update, initial reaction to this morning's ECMWF model run is that it is not looking as good regarding end of the week snowfall, however, the end of its run does show the potential for a blast of polar air. One to keep an eye on, as although this is long way off and could easily disappear on subsequent updates, it suggests winter returning on the 22nd!
Back to today and it is looking good, with clear skies overhead and a bit of patchy, fair weather high cloud.
Bonjour from Chatel. Colder temperatures have allowed snowmaking to take place across the ski area since yesterday evening, which is very good news. Temperatures are currently ranging from close to -5C in the village to -6.5C in the valley, with clear skies overhead.
There has also been a change from the GFS model overnight, with the pendulum swinging on its operational run to more in the way of precipitation at the end of next week, which would bring snowfalls to the ski area. The chart below potentially has a similar chance of verifying as the one which was posted on yesterday evening's update, which was devoid of precipitation, however, some sort of half way house is looking more likely, so there remains a chance of some snowfall at the end of the week.
...more info will be posted on today's forecast page at... http://www.chatelweb.com/chatel_snow_forecast.php - which is normally online before 8am, followed by further updates on this page today.
Chart from www.meteociel.fr
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