13/11/2019: Today's Updates... Clear Skies This Morning... Mostly Clear Skies To End The Day...
An evening update... first up here is the view from Col du Saix, taken around 5pm...
It was nice up there!
Back to this evening and the snow cannon appear to be working again over on Linga, which is excellent news.
Regarding the prospects for snow, well, they are not great at the moment - if most models are to be believed.
Although the Arpege model suggests some snowfall on Thursday night and Friday and the Meteo France automated forecast suggests 15cm to 22cm for the period from tomorrow evening to tomorrow night, other sources of info are not very keen at all. The all important hi-res Arome model suggests zero snowfall up to 7am Friday and the popular, but often really poor GFS, is suggesting less than 5cm for the period through to Sunday morning! The Arome model is also suggesting a light foehn for a time tomorrow and tomorrow night. There is a chance of snow on Sunday, but that could also go the way of delivering to the southern Alps, especially parts of Italy, rather than bringing us a useful snowfall.
Although a slight shift in the pattern could change things favourably, our expectations are low over the coming days.
Just to add to the slightly downbeat note, there have been some stinking charts today for the period at the back end of next week. Note that the word is stinking, not stonking. Both GFS and ECMWF has the area in a very mild southerly feed from Thursday next week, which could develop into a very wet spell, or even a spell of foehn. It is far too early to push the panic button, as these charts are over a week away, but, a thaw scenario is very much a possibility.
Next update, hopefully with better news, is expected early tomorrow morning.
The skies were clear this morning, with snow making taking place - the photo below was from Super Chatel.
Looking at the models and charts is a little frustrating at the moment, as although the weather has cooled down and we have some encouraging snow cover on the upper half of the ski area, the prospects for a major snowfall remain elusive. This is despite the fact that low pressure has been an almost constant presence in Europe, however, the distribution of lows and fronts has not been particularly favourable to this part of the Alps. Over the next few days, parts of Northern Italy and Southern Switzerland could see a heck of alot of snow, whereas areas in the NW French Alps looks like seeing much less. We will have a couple of bites of the potential snowy cherry, commencing from tomorrow night onwards, but at the moment there are some very mixed messages coming from the models. Having looked at the 00z and 6z model runs, it is probably best to leave it at that for the moment and wait for the 12z runs later in the day to see whether there is any consensus on tomorrow night's potential snowfall...
Bonjour from Chatel, where the skies are clear this morning and there has again been some snow making activity on the ski area overnight. There was also the faintest dusting of natural snow.
Photos below taken a few minutes ago and an update looking at the forecast will be posted around lunchtime today...