• The Chatel Snow Report

15/11/2018: Morning Updates...

Updated: Nov 20, 2018

Bonjour from Chatel, where the rooves are white this morning from a touch of overnight frost and air temperatures dipped close to 0C in the valley early this morning. With clear skies overhead, it looks like being another glorious day. Below are a couple of photos taken at approx 8.30am.


The latest look at the models and prospects for snow was added at 10.05am and can be found below...





Update 10.05am... a look at the overnight model runs...


High pressure continues to be shown to be situated over Scandinavia this weekend and moving towards Iceland early next week, with low pressure edging up from the western Med, resulting in more of a general easterly feed for the Alps and introducing cooler temperatures. The presence of low pressure could bring some snow flurries or perhaps even a light snowfall to the Chatel area during next week, however, at this stage, the forecast behaviour of the low does not look favourable for anything significant in terms of snowfall (note the wording: "at this stage" as this is something we will be monitoring closely).


The snap shot of the 3 main models shown below, shows this situation quite clearly and all 3 models, the operational runs from GFS, UK Met Office and ECMWF show a similar evolution out to 144 hours.


Beyond this time frame, there are differences between the GFS and ECMWF, which are highlighted at the 192hr time frame.

At these extended timeframes, the individual model runs need to be looked at in the context of where they sit in their ensembles, to give some clues as to how representative they might be and it does appear that the ECMWF operational model run is rather different to many of its ensemble members, which gives it less chance of being correct - however - it still cannot be ruled out. The GFS model appears much keener to keep high pressure towards Iceland / Greenland.


So, what does this mean...


At this stage it is impossible to predict which model is on the right track and both scenarios throw up plenty of questions, rather than answers regarding snowfall. As has been mentioned on previous posts, this is a fairly unusual evolution that is being shown by the models for this time of year and the implications are not straightforward in terms of the impact on early season snowfall / snow cover, with always the possibility of some very mild air being imported from the south, or some bitterly cold air arriving from the north (with snow). So, those automated apps and forecast websites, which are based on the operational models, will probably continue to chop and change from a cold extended outlook to a milder one and back, depending on which model it is based on, and will continue to raise and dampen spirits.


Patience continues to be required and it might be a case of looking towards the last week of this month, for the chance of significant snow to arrive. Remember, things can change quickly on these charts beyond a few days, so we'll keep you posted and there is a possibility that we may see something falling from the sky at times next week.

Bye for now... next update expected to be during this evening...


All charts above copyright Meteociel.fr


How you can help this season... you will notice on some pages that there is a PayPal tip/donation box, eg on the "About Us" page, where you can send us a tip, if you like what we are doing. There is no obligation to do so, but any donations will help the running costs of this site during the winter season. 




Contact Us

    © 2018 2019 2020 The Chatel Snow Report