21/11/2018: Today's Updates... 6.05pm...
After a day out of the village, down to a not so sunny Thonon and Amphion, the weather is still a little overcast in Chatel and so no extra photos today. Instead, a quick look at the models and the utter chaos that is the modelling for next week!
As it stands this evening, it does still look as though we may see a little snow on Friday, though snow/rain limits may be above the village. Thereafter, the situation gets a little bit more complicated and beyond the weekend, the models are really struggling.
The GFS model, which powers most (not all) of the automated snow forecasting apps and websites has been showing some classic variability today. Below is its "hi-res" accumulated precipitation forecast up to 7am next Thursday. The first chart was from the 6Z run which came out during the late morning and the second is the 12Z version, which came out a few minutes ago. The first chart shows 100mm of precipitation (alot) for parts of Haute Savoie, and then, just 6 hours later, it is showing a fraction of that amount! This is all related to how it is modelling an area of low pressure as it tracks into Europe next week and some models are far less progressive in terms of the lows penetration beyond Britain - but, this is an example of how up in the air the situation is for next week and why it is so very difficult to say whether we will see the significant snowfall that will be required to kick start the season for the opening weekend.
You could say that the models really don't have a clue as far as next week is concerned, in which case we have little chance either. So, it might be best to treat all extended forecasts on those automated apps and websites with more caution than normal at the moment!
Bye for now... the next update is expected to be on the forecast page at approx. 8am tomorrow.
All charts above copyright Meteociel.fr
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The weather is dry and fairly bright here in Chatel at the moment, with still plenty of high cloud overhead.
Here are a few photos looking into the village and towards the Linga area, showing the thin snow cover from the snowfall on Tuesday.
Next update expected to be this evening...
Bonjour from Chatel where it is a fairly cloudy start to the day. The forecast page has been updated, so head over there to see what our thoughts on the outlook are.
We'll post again on this page during the morning...