23/11/2018: Today's Updates... 6.05pm...
A jog up to Saix late this afternoon found some sleety flakes of snow amongst the showers above about 1400m, though precipitation was (and is) light and showery. The photo below shows the fresh dusting on Morclan and towards Barbossine.
We'll update early tomorrow on the news of any overnight snowfall and the forecast page will be updated at, or a touch before, 8am.
The rain and snow eased off this afternoon, leaving a fresh dusting higher up. Currently dry and overcast...
The rain and snow has arrived earlier here in Chatel than some charts were suggesting this morning and it does look as though it is snowing above about 1700m at the moment, which is very good news. There is still some suggestion that this area may be affected by some milder air for a time this evening, raising the snow/rain limit, however, the fact that this rain and snow event is currently not really behaving as forecast, does bring the possibility of something a surprise. we'll keep you posted.
With cloudy skies outside, lets have a look at the latest models for next week... As mentioned on the forecast page this morning, there is a bit of snow in the forecast for tonight and perhaps early next week, before we see some potentially milder air pumped into the area for a time during the second half of the week. We can see on the charts below that the major models are showing differences in how they handle the low pressure system approaching Britain, however, the result is similar for us, in that it looks likely that we will see that milder air pumped in. The unknowns at this stage are the extent and duration of any milder period, as it could be short lived, with colder air still lurking not that far to the east and also whether we will see a glancing blow from low pressure as suggested by the GFS model.
At the moment it has to be said that we are scraping the barrel in terms of finding genuinely wintry and snowy possibilities. Yes, we may see some useful snowfall higher up tonight and with that there is always the chance of a surprise and this is also the case for the early next week period, and these charts do chop and change, so things could look very different on subsequent runs, however, any significant snowfall still looks to be beyond the 7 to 10 day period.
For any chance of a partial opening for the first weekend of December we will need to see temperatures early next week fall low enough for snow making and a fair amount of fresh snowfall - both of which are far from guaranteed at this juncture. We will be up in the relevant ski areas after the weekend to bring you the latest info on piste preparation, so watch this space for further news.
In terms of how this season will pan out, it is still very early days and some of the best snow seasons did not get going until well into December, so there is plenty of time for a change in fortunes.
All charts above copyright Meteociel.fr
First post on this page expected at approx 11am. The snow forecast page was updated at 7.50am this morning.
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