27/01/2021: Today's Updates...
There was approx 1cm of snow this morning, however this afternoon has seen a mix of rain, sleet and snow, with no further accumulations in the village. The soggy weather has arrived...
Following on from the post below and that remarkable Arpege prediction, here is a look at the potential level of the 0c isotherm over the period concerned...
According to the hi-res Arome mode, which is normally fairly reliable in terms of its 0c level prediction, today, the 0c isotherm is expected to ease upwards and be at...
1400m at 1pm
1500m at 2pm
1600m at 5pm
1700m at 9pm
1720m at midnight.
This suggests the snow/rain boundary will be close to the village this afternoon and ease above the village at times. In very general terms, the snow/rain boundary is often close to about 300m below the 0c isotherm level. There could be a bit of a fluctuating situation with the snow/rain boundary coming down in any heavier precipitation, but the overall trend will be upwards.
Overnight, the rain and snow will continue and the 0c isotherm is expected to be at...
1720m at 2am
1825m at 4am
2020m at 6am
2100m at 8am
Which suggests a snow/rain boundary between 1600m and 1800m by early tomorrow.
Through tomorrow morning, the 0c isotherm will be between 2000m and 2100m, but this may raise above 2200m in the afternoon, so that snow/rain boundary may edge upwards towards 1900m (+/- 100m).
Thereafter, heading into the period beyond the Arome models' range, the Arpege model suggests the 0c isotherm around 2200m on Thursday night, then 2000m on Friday morning. During Friday afternoon and evening, the 0c isotherm should fall, bringing the snow/rain boundary down (if there is still precipitation falling), however, on Saturday it may rise again up to 2000m, before falling by Sunday morning. Note that this period covered by the Arpege model is far from certain, but we will post updates from the Arome during tomorrow.
One other point is that the period beyond 7am Sunday is likely to see further precipitation!!!
This looks like being an unpleasant period for the village, with localised flooding perhaps becoming an issue and the avalanche risk could become extreme in the region - IF these volumes of precipitation arrive.
To kick off a look at the next few days, here is a truly astonishing Arpege chart for the accumulated precipitation overt the coming days across the region. Note, that this is not snowfall, it is total precipitation and although the details of the graphic should not be taken too seriously, it is the very high numbers which are of great concern. Chart from www.meteociel.fr
So, the question is, how much of this will be snow?... Further update shortly...
Bonjour from Chatel.
It is snowing again here in Chatel this morning, with an additional dusting so far, however, it is set to turn much less cold and much wetter over the next couple of days. There will be a look at the hi-res predictions for the 0c isotherm and snow/rain boundary on an update this morning...
Most updates and photos this season are posted on the WhatsApp members group
Link to the page which tracks the snowfalls in Chatel over the season:
The lifts on the ski area are closed until further notice.
Bars, restaurants and cafes are expected to remain closed until further notice (takeaway services allowed).
Although confinement has ended in France - an overnight curfew is in place from 6pm to 6am.
Private gatherings indoors should be kept to a maximum of 6 adults according to advice from the French government.
Travel between regions in France is allowed.