13/11/2018: Is Something Brewing In The Outlook???
The mild weather continues here in Chatel today, but there is more cloud than yesterday and there were a few spots of rain from a passing shower earlier. The predominantly dry and mild conditions are set to continue through the rest of this week and through the weekend.
A view towards a cloudier Linga at 12.15 today...
There have been some developments from the models since the update of yesterday, which could end up being good news... eventually.
High pressure is still being modelled to be situated over Scandinavia by the end of the coming weekend, resulting in potentially chillier air arriving from the east / southeast. There remains plenty of uncertainty regarding how cold it will become, but there is a possibility that conditions might become suitable for snow making - but they probably won't be much good for much, if any, natural snowfall, as we don't see much snow falling in Chatel when there is an easterly airflow across the Alps.
Thereafter, there are suggestions from the models that this potential Scandinavian high might retrogress, or move westwards, towards Iceland and Greenland during next week. This would be a very interesting situation (if it happens), leading to the possibility of a very cold spell of weather for NW Europe. For us here in the NW French Alps, this could mean a number of things, with snowfall perhaps becoming more of a possibility, however, it does also bring with it the chance of a milder influence. An example of this can be found by looking back to the end of November 2010, which also saw high pressure in the Greenland / Iceland area, leading to early snowfalls for the French Alps and some extremely cold temperatures. However, after a good start to the skiing season in many areas during the first weekend of December, a wet and very mild spell soon arrived and dampened spirits for a time, bringing a marked deterioration in conditions, before things improved again during the month. (As an aside, overall, the 2010/11 season ended up being a bit of stinker in terms of snowfall, with a long spell of anticyclonic weather dominating).
So, high pressure in northern latitudes, whilst it may bring winter to Britain, can bring mixed results to the French Alps - but IF (and it is still a big IF), the high does actually retrogress from Scandinavia, then it does still bring that chance of snowfall.
In summary, patience is still going to be required over the coming days as the seemingly relentless mild spell continues, but eyes may soon be turning to the east during early next week as colder temperatures potentially arrive and beyond that, we may then see the lottery scenario of an Icelandic / Greenland high - so things are likely to get much more interesting and our eyes might be turning north at times.
Winter is coming... well, maybe!
Bye for now... next update likely to be tomorrow.