Today's Updates: 07/12/2018... 10.10pm...
Rain starting to turn now... this defo last update this eve!
Last update this evening... temp now between 4.5C and 5.0C. Still rain in the village.
Next update very early tomorrow on this page, followed by the forecast at about 7.45am.
Heavy rain in the village - temp coming down nicely...
Rain has arrived, quite heavy. Temperature reached 9C not long ago in the village, but we should see this coming down dramatically at some stage...
Still mild and dry here in Chatel, though there are some noticeable gusts of wind now coming through.
We await the cold front... updates to follow during the evening...
The weather is dry and bright here in Chatel, with a mix of cloud and blue bits overhead.
A glance at some forecasts for the next few days, on the most popular automated websites shows quite a range of possibilities, in terms of snow accumulations. Leading the optimistic pack appears to be the Meteo France automated offering, which gives a total snowfall between tonight and Monday night of just under 110cm for the top of the ski area and 48cm for the village. The popular Austrian based forecast suggests 27cm for the village and 76cm for the top, for the same period. The GFS based snow forecast is suggesting 69cm for the very top, 58cm for just above mid-station and 30cm for the village etc etc. So, although there is a noticeable difference in potential outcomes, they are all suggesting significant snowfall higher up.
Here are a couple of charts to peruse over a morning coffee.. they are both from the excellent www.meteociel.fr website and show accumulated precipitation totals - NOT snowfall. The first chart is the last frame from the latest run of the hi-res Arome model. Some of the numbers below will be the rain that falls this evening, before the snow/rain limit tumbles, but what it does show, when converted into equivalent snowfall, is that some useful accumulations are possible locally.
Next is another accumulated precipitation chart (NOT accumulated snowfall) from the Arpege model. We mentioned recently that we think its snowfall accumulation charts are not the best (to say the least), however, its precipitation charts are always worth a close look. Again, note that perhaps 10mm or so of these figures will be the initial rain tonight and some mm's will be rain during the milder period on Saturday night, but what this chart does show, is the potential for some really significant snowfall higher up over the weekend.
So, which scenario, forecast or model will be correct by the time we get to Tuesday?
One golden rule is to never write off a particular forecast BEFORE the weather event has actually taken place. We can consider some scenarios to be less likely than others, however, every model has its day and the chaotic and unpredictable nature of the mountain weather, especially in terms of precipitation and snowfall, does mean that there is always the potential for a surprise - either good or bad.
Considering the overall model output from this morning - we remain optimistic for this one.
Next update will be later this afternoon or early evening.
As this snow event is such an important one - in terms of the ski area being able to open, we'll be updating regularly throughout this evening and the weekend...
...How you can help this season... you will notice on some pages that there is a PayPal tip/donation box, eg on the "About Us" page, where you can send us a tip, if you like what we are doing. There is no obligation to do so, but any donations will help the running costs of this site during the winter season. The more people who help, the better we can make this site.
The forecast page was updated at 7.45am.
We have a very interesting (and important) period coming up.
Will it deliver?
We'll probably take a look during the morning at the range of forecasts on offer this morning. At the moment, the GFS based ones look like the party pooper (in relative terms), with the Meteo France automated forecast perhaps the most bullish.
More on this a bit later...
How you can help this season... you will notice on some pages that there is a PayPal tip/donation box, eg on the "About Us" page, where you can send us a tip, if you like what we are doing. There is no obligation to do so, but any donations will help the running costs of this site during the winter season. The more people who help, the better we can make this site.